Covid Vaccine sales sank 44% in 2023 | Company’s $6 Billion Forecast

Paresh Jadhav

12 months ago

Moderna relies on Covid shot sales to finance development of vaccines against flu, RSV and cancer using its messenger RNA technology, which has already shown promise in each of these areas.

Moderna estimates its 2024 revenue will reach $4 billion due to sales from its Covid vaccine and anticipated revenues from RSV-specific treatments that could help bolster growth over time.

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Vaccine sales sank 44% in 2023

Moderna reported this fall that fewer people turned out for its updated Covid vaccine than expected, leading it to achieve sales that met its $6 billion forecast but fell short of last year?s $18 billion haul.

Cambridge-based company hopes to return to sales growth by 2025 with the launch of new products from their pipeline. They currently have 45 products under development; nine of which are in late-stage trials (such as one targeting both Covid and flu which could receive FDA approval as early as 2025).

This year, the company anticipates selling between $2 to $4 billion worth of its new COVID-19 vaccine on the commercial market – moving away from government contracts and into an area comparable to flu shots sales. Pfizer Inc had forecasted $5 billion for this year after cutting its profit outlook for its Covid vaccine due to decreasing vaccination rates. Moderna plans to promote its vaccine using tailored digital messaging targeted at health care providers. Arpa Garay, its Chief Commercial Officer, stated on Thursday that they intend to offer discounted pricing for insurers and self-insured employers, while also lowering its cost base through ending contracts with outside manufacturers and shrinking manufacturing footprint.

Moderna’s Covid shot sales plunged

Moderna overshot expectations in 2023 Covid shot sales during its third-quarter, though losses widened. The biotech has announced plans to take an estimated charge of at least $1.3 billion related to vaccines that have outlived their shelf lives and take another charge of at least $500 million as it winds down contract manufacturing operations.

Moderna estimates its total revenues this year to reach approximately $4 billion, thanks to Covid sales and its planned launch of RSV vaccine. Moderna also plans on creating mRNA flu and cancer vaccines and hopes that these two new products will drive sales back towards growth this year.

Moderna Biotech in Cambridge, Massachusetts is shifting investor attention away from Covid market sales and toward its pipeline of other shots for cancer and heart disease conditions. Moderna hopes to demonstrate to regulators that it can produce vaccines using its own technology rather than relying on pharmaceutical giants such as Pfizer and GSK which possess large infrastructures dedicated to vaccine production. They hope to launch their first of these other vaccines by late 2024 – this should allow Moderna Chief Commercial Officer Arpa Garay anticipate that booster sales for Covid may increase as people opting not to get it initially will likely purchase booster shots when available later that year, Moderna expects booster sales to pick up steam by 2024 as people opting not to get it this fall will likely purchase one instead.

The company’s Covid shot sales plunged

Moderna is among a handful of vaccine manufacturers that has seen sales for its Covid shots decline as much of the world has moved past the pandemic and there is less demand. Yet Moderna remains hopeful its pipeline can increase sales over time. They are developing shots targeting other respiratory conditions while filing an experimental jab to protect older adults against RSV (respiratory syncytial virus).

Moderna announced its 2023 Covid sales had fallen by approximately two-thirds year over year, meeting the lower end of a $6 billion forecast it set last year. Yet Moderna maintained their lead in US market with 48% share during fall vaccination campaign versus 37% for rival Pfizer Inc’s (PFE.N) version of Covid vaccine.

Moderna expects its sales growth to resume by 2025 as new vaccines hit the market, Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock informed investors on Monday. Moderna anticipates making $4 billion in sales next year from Spikevax sales alone as well as any combination flu/RSV shots approved for approval in 2025.