This week Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to the US in order to push Congress into passing an aid package that is critical for protecting cities and towns against Russian air and missile strikes. New weapons are an absolute priority as part of Ukraine’s defenses against these assaults.
Kyiv declares its commitment to this war is unwavering and believes they can achieve victory, though Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warns of potential Western political aid being reduced over time.
What do you mean by ‘plan B’?
The Kremlin’s plan A was to quickly seize and rule Kyiv. However, its plan B – waiting for Ukraine’s allies to surrender and go home – appears to be successful.
Their supporters have shown great resilience, perseverance and patience; unfortunately liberal democracies, which must answer to their electorates for their survival, don’t always possess this same quality.
At this juncture, a compromise needs to be reached: the United States should fund Ukraine at a level similar to that suggested by Biden – no more than $60 billion – and provide all weaponry requested over 18 months by Kiev; but its new policy should make clear it will not seek to liberate Russian-seized territories militarily; rather it should focus on supporting Ukrainian efforts to defend what it already possesses, recover economically and strengthen security ties to Western nations.
Western Supplies
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky responded strongly to claims made by Russian officials that they are winning their war: ‘Things may not move as fast as some imagine, but the fact remains that we are making strides forward’
The Ukrainian government has taken full advantage of Western supplies of small weapons like Javelin and Stinger missiles, but is pleading for heavier tanks, artillery pieces and other pieces that would allow it to change the tide in battles yet to come.
European nations say they plan on helping Ukraine with funds, weapons and other assistance; but cannot immediately replace U.S. support, given its limited capacity due to other global commitments of the Pentagon. One senior EU official described this gap as being so large it threatens future efforts; according to another ‘it would require any country stepping up military spending significantly which is no easy feat.’
Ukraine capabilities
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban does not appear to lack confidence, yet seems without an effective plan for dealing with Ukraine.
As the war continues, Western governments have grown weary of providing money and arms. Their own defense and security interests do not always align with those of Ukraine; and any aid may end up going directly to Putin cronies instead.
Some analysts have overestimated Russia’s military capability by using raw numbers without considering qualitative differences between Ukraine’s army and Russia’s. Meanwhile, others failed to take into account Ukraine’s army reform since 2014. Furthermore, as noted by the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, some may have been influenced by anecdotal studies of Ukrainian capabilities conducted prior to 2014. All this can deprive Ukraine of vital resources needed for victory or become self-fulfilling prophecies that perpetuate themselves further.
