Trump’s dominance in the caucuses confirmed late polling results and cemented his pseudo-incumbency among Iowa Republicans, convincing them he did not lose in 2012 and excelling among both young men and old men in Iowa as well as evangelicals something the previous administration failed to achieve.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second overall, ahead of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and this does not bode well for Haley who could be forced out by a strong finish in New Hampshire.
Trump’s Legal Woes Have Only Helped
Iowa was his strong suit. In urban, small-town and rural communities; evangelical voters; those without college degrees; as well as outperforming his rivals including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N Ambassador Nikki Haley in areas where moderates won 2016; suburban voters.
Trump remains an effective representative of racial revanchism that has long held sway in America; these dynamics played out again Monday night in Iowa.
The Rules Don’t Apply
Trump’s swift victory in Iowa was a clear signal that any challengers must adapt quickly if they hope to challenge him. Even Haley, who attempted to position herself as something of a moderate in a party that has since changed drastically around her, and DeSantis who attempted to pass himself off as an activist anti-“woke” candidate have failed to stymie Trump.
People who supported Haley and DeSantis may regret not going all-in against Trump, who amassed significant leads across every county, age group and region without relying on institutional infrastructure; his campaign relied instead on tele-rallies, pizza deliveries, shoe leather work and grassroots support to take power.
He’s the Favorite
Donald Trump made a strong case for himself as the Republican nominee by winning Iowa and looks poised to secure it next week in New Hampshire unless there are major surprises or unexpected developments.
Much of the intrigue in New Hampshire has centered on who will finish second, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley appearing to battle it out for second-place status. Only several thousand votes separated them at last count; these two split the evangelical vote equally, yet neither candidate came close to Trump for second-place overall. This will only heighten tensions further within both parties during primary season in general and New Hampshire specifically.
He’s Taking the Lead
Trump demonstrated strength among rural, small-town, suburban and evangelical Christian voters as well as those without college degrees – which could signal trouble ahead for anyone hoping to unseat him in 2024.
Trump managed to draw support in Iowa despite facing multiple criminal charges, a state known for overlooking candidates unable to move beyond previous presidential defeats.
Ron DeSantis strongly denounced media outlets for prematurely calling the race before many voters had even cast ballots, calling such coverage “outrageous.” Yet DeSantis didn’t seem to stand much of a chance of unseating Donald Trump during first-in-the-nation caucuses.
He’s Taking It to the Extreme
On Monday night, Iowans filed into 1,600 caucus sites across the state to cast ballots – polls showing Donald Trump garnered the greatest favor. 58% of Iowans intending to caucus supported him over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
But his win also serves as evidence that former President Clinton is increasingly operating like an incumbent, with an aura and network that are hard to match. Such pseudo incumbency may encourage supporters to view their favorite as above blame or defeat, leading to violent demonstrations like those seen during the January 6 Capitol Riot.
He’s Taking the Lead
Trump’s fast win in Iowa serves as further evidence that he will likely cruise through to victory in New Hampshire and ultimately the nomination. His rivals – including former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley – struggled to find anything dissatisfying about an individual who faces four criminal trials on 91 felony charges.
Even without institutional support, Trump won the majority of votes cast in all 99 counties and outpaced Haley by an overwhelming margin. According to AP VoteCast’s estimates, Trump excelled particularly well among evangelical Christians and voters without college degrees; as well as doing extremely well among Republicans who had previously hesitated in voting for him.
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