Since 1976, every president has participated in multiple debates organized by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates; however, Donald Trump has signaled to his fellow GOP voters that his eventual nominee won’t participate.
Trump and his team have taken an interesting turn of events recently, in regards to why this change occurred.
Why?
As political candidates are judged based on narratives as much as competition, it’s critical that large-format opportunities like presidential debates exist to showcase your plans and express them fully. That is why presidential debates have always been so significant.
Trump, who believes he’s already the presumptive Republican nominee, expressed enthusiasm at debating Biden. Additionally, he did not rule out participating in hypothetical debates organized by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates after New Hampshire even though he has strongly objected to their existence in previous encounters.
Trump‘s increasingly manic presentation style and occasional missteps while speaking on stage make it abundantly clear that his mental acuity may be diminishing, with frequent impulsive statements and mix-ups between people (including recently when he confused Nikki Haley with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi). All this contributes to a critical narrative: that of him losing control over his cognitive faculties; something which could erode support among voters if seen by them as such a risk.
Polls don’t matter
Polls don’t necessarily represent what will happen in November – rather, they provide a snapshot that doesn’t guarantee anything will change come November. Many potential voters may prefer one candidate over the others but might still hold their nose and cast a ballot for either Biden or Trump come November.
Polling expert Brian Shor has noted in an analysis for NPR that, due to the Covid-19 circus, Democrats have become more likely to respond to surveys and thus increase their representation even after weighting, giving Joe Biden a slight edge in the numbers.
Democratic strategists argue that Biden’s current poll standing does not accurately reflect what will occur during the general election. They cite numerous variables which could alter its outcome, including Trump’s multiple trials and legal challenges over the course of 2018, as well as Democratic enthusiasm among young voters being key in determining its victor.
Biden’s campaign isn’t ready
Biden’s campaign has largely operated in isolation. His few aides say they are taking it seriously and slowly ramping up, reaching out to donors for early commitments and positions on what would serve as his finance committee.
But there’s a feeling in the campaign that it is being underestimated and they don’t believe the political media complex understands just how deep Trump has fallen in voters’ estimation. They argue it will all work out eventually.
However, time will tell whether this theory holds water. What’s certain, however, is that without some way for Biden to argue against Trump’s moral challenges and instability as an unsuitable president in 2024, it will be impossible for him to win over enough voters against the former president in a 2024 campaign; and most observers expect this process will likely require debate – until then the race could turn into a drawn-out battle leaving Biden’s team wondering where their strategy went awry.
The stakes are high
Donald Trump has an issue, and not just among himself. Every misstep or gaffe he commits heightens fears that he could lose control of the presidency, while his refusal to participate in Republican debates during his primary campaign only heightens this anxiety further.
Even just a handful of debates between them would help voters assess them and assess how their political philosophies and approaches to issues may vary, though any election-swallowing promise that face-to-face encounters would decide the result is highly unlikely.
Trump has refused to participate in debates hosted by the Commission on Presidential Debates until recently, but during an appearance with Hugh Hewitt radio show in December he stated he looks forward to debates between himself and Joe Biden. When asked by Hewitt how many debates he wanted “How about 10?” Trump replied. This should serve as an initial signpost, though more active participation should follow as both men have much to prove beyond brash statements and statements made by Trump alone.
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