Now that Joe Manchin is opting out, Democrats in West Virginia face an uphill battle, but two additional key Democratic targets exist on its map: Texas and Florida.
Races for Senate in states carried comfortably by Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020 will likely be determined by incumbent senators in states won by him; many have yet to announce their reelection plans.
1. West Virginia
With Joe Manchin retiring, Republicans now have an excellent opportunity to gain control of West Virginia. Governor Jim Justice, known for his populist appeal and English bulldogs, is running for their nomination; however, his battle will likely be tough against US Rep Alex Mooney who enjoys Club for Growth Action’s support.
Bob Casey is running for Senate as part of the Democratic ticket and faces an equally competitive election campaign.
2. Ohio
Republican congressional candidates now have an opening to unseat Democratic senators from West Virginia, Montana (Jon Tester), Ohio (Sherrod Brown) and Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), where Joe Manchin announced his retirement earlier this week.
National Republicans still haven’t found an ideal candidate in Ohio yet; this could result in another open GOP primary like 2022.
3. Montana
Tester, an unassuming grain farmer from Big Sandy, is widely seen as a moderate in a state that supported Donald Trump by 16 points. But ousting Tester would give Republicans an invaluable edge in their bid for Senate control.
Tester recently raised more than $5 Million and is facing scrutiny from an outside group, Last Best Place PAC, that appears linked to Democrats.
4. Arizona
Republicans hold seven of the 10 Senate seats most likely to change hands next year, while Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema remains an attractive target for Democratic opponents in an atmosphere characterized by moderate voters and suburban swing voters deciding tight elections.
West Virginian Senator Bob Casey faces an uphill re-election battle this November; however, national Republicans remain optimistic of their chances at taking back control of the Senate.
5. Nevada
Kyrsten Sinema’s seat as a Democratic representative is another prime target for Republicans, as she faces tough opposition from Republican Kari Lake, who lost the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election.
Democrats don’t take Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen’s seat for granted either; Republican Sam Brown could pose a strong challenge from within her Reform synagogue congregation and give Senate Democrats some leverage due to Biden’s tie-breaking role. A win here could give Senate Democrats some extra breathing room given Biden’s tie-breaking capabilities in the chamber.
6. Michigan
Democrats face an uphill struggle in this key swing state that Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020. Republicans are fielding challengers such as state Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno who can fund their campaigns themselves.
Wisconsin slips down this month due to Republican failure to nominate an effective challenger to Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. That could change with primary season progressing further.
7. Pennsylvania
Michigan and Pennsylvania Democrats breathed a sigh of relief this spring when it became evident that their Republican opponents would likely forgoing presidential bids, with Sherrod Brown of Ohio remaining an effective force within blue states and Bob Casey standing as an outstanding Keystone vote-getter for Democrats.
Mehmet Oz could pose an aggressive Republican challenge that puts his seat in peril.
8. Texas
In 2024, Democrats will be defending 26 seats (20 Democrats and three independents who caucus with them), while Republicans are defending 11 of theirs. Allred is an early-term congressman with strong fundraising potential in an area Trump won.
An early win for Democrats in this GOP-heavy state would provide them with an early boost, though filing deadlines won’t come around until later this year.
9. Florida
Republicans can expect at least a single-seat pickup next year in California to keep them in control with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking any ties that arise among members.
Arizona presents the only realistic Democratic target, where former Democrat Kyrsten Sinema now caucuses with Republicans and hasn’t announced her intentions to run again for election. That seat could become competitive with the right candidate from either party running it.
10. Utah
National Republicans saw a major boost when West Virginia Governor Jim Justice declared his candidacy for Senate earlier this month, yet they have failed to secure candidates in other key states.
Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio are in tough reelection races but appear likely to retain their seats in swing states where President Donald Trump outshone Vice President Joe Biden during 2020.
