Congress votes on President Trump‘s efforts to overturn the 2020 election provide an unparalleled test of electoral accountability for any violations of democratic principles. Our new analysis shows that voters both reward or punish House members who publicly condone Trump’s attacks against democracy with their reelection prospects.
Multicollinearity adds strength to these results; please see SI Appendix for details.
Congressional Leaders Endorse Him
Congress Republicans have given their unflinching support to Donald Trump, as evidenced by their unanimous backing for him at this year’s Republican Leadership Conference. He currently dominates most primary polls and recently overtook Joe Biden in general election surveys.
Rep. Mike Johnson took an unusual step on Tuesday by endorsing Donald Trump early, breaking with convention by joining House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik from New York and Republican Study Committee Chairman Gary Palmer from Alabama in their support.
Richard Hudson of North Carolina also supported Trump on Wednesday, along with most of the state’s Republican congressional delegation. But one key House endorsement came from Minnesota Republican Rep. Tom Emmer who oversees majority whip’s office.
He is showing his Minnesota Republican delegation his full support despite not endorsing Emmer’s bid for speaker last year, even as he declined to back her campaign for speaker. When announcing his backing, majority whip Paul Davis highlighted the need to protect “our Constitution and our democracy from threats we face”. Though facing multiple criminal and civil suits related to his incitement of the deadly Jan. 6 attack on Congress, Trump continues to rally support from his base to overcome any hurdles or obstacles presented against him.
Congressional Members Endorse Trump
Within the past week, Trump secured endorsement from two key House Republican leaders — Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House GOP Whip Tom Emmer — signaling that most members will support him in the upper chamber. He also has support from some rank-and-file members including Reps Michael Guest, Cindy Hyde-Smith, Bill Huizenga and Gary Palmer.
Also, Republican lawmakers from states where Trump is popular are beginning to back him more openly – such as Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville who supported former President Clinton during 2024 and had an amicable relationship with Trump during his presidency; as well as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton a long-term ally and friend of Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump.
Other Members of Congress who have come out in support of him include Richard Hudson, R-North Carolina; Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant praised Trump for being “attentive” to state needs and “attuned with my state’s priorities.”
But many Republicans have been reluctant to show their support for Trump despite his strong showing in early polls. Some fear retaliation from his team; others such as Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur have raised doubts about her fitness for office; many may wait until after a new national convention before making their final judgment in this primary.
Congressional Candidates Endorse Trump
Trump supported numerous Republican candidates this year in highly contentious statewide and congressional primaries, offering an opportunity to gauge his influence over his party almost two years after losing it.
Most of he’s endorsed candidates won their primaries. There were, however, some high-profile upsets among them; New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated one such incumbent; other upsets included Blake Masters’ loss in Arizona, Adam Laxalt’s in Nevada and Mehmet Oz’s defeat in Pennsylvania.
He supported most incumbents who tend to enjoy high reelection rates during primaries; therefore, their success doesn’t provide an accurate gauge of his influence.
The remaining candidates were either political novices or had no track record in public office, from former news anchors to 26-year-old former college footballers who promoted loyalty to him including supporting his unsubstantiated claim of having won the 2016 presidential election. These results demonstrate how Trump’s endorsement can play a powerful role in state and congressional primary elections but is far from being the magical talisman some Republicans (including former president) have described it as.
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