New York’s highest court recently issued a ruling giving Democrats an opportunity to redistrict congressional districts that will give them an advantage in 2024. Republicans, meanwhile, have identified several districts they believe may be competitive for them.
Garcia has lashed out against his Democratic opponent for being soft on crime and pushing bail reform, hoping that this strategy will enable him to flip their district come March.
Lee Zeldin’s 3rd District
As Democrats beat former Rep. George Santos by 8 points in 2020, strategists expect an intense race next year for this Long Island-based seat. However, with Zeldin being such an experienced candidate with an established track record the GOP may just retain it.
FiveThirtyEight’s Partisan Lean Metric allows Republicans to target districts where 5-in-5 voters cast ballots more often for them during midterm elections between 1998 and 2018. Democrats can target districts held by them, yet which voted 5-in-5 more Republican than average, while third group are considered more competitive: these seats hold by Democrats but still voted more Republican than expected overall.
Suozzi was chosen from among a strong roster of candidates available to the party, such as Hochul’s last gubernatorial challenger who campaigned on right-leaning issues such as bail reform. Democratic House Majority PAC plans to play an instrumental role in this race while party leaders such as Hochul and Hakeem Jeffries may recommend candidates directly to county party leaders.
Nicole Malliotakis’ 11th District
Last year, New York was an essential battleground in the battle over control of the House, in large part because its districts were drawn by its Democratic-dominated Legislature and then approved by a judge.
That map led to Republican gains on Long Island and upstate, placing all 26 congressional seats into play. Democrats filed suit over these districts, prompting the court to hire an impartial special master who will draw up new maps.
The ruling directed the commission to present a new plan by Feb. 28 that will then go before the Democrat-controlled legislature for approval. This puts Democrats in an improved position to recapture some districts they lost last year. Furthermore, it opens up opportunities for one or more Democratic candidates in suburban New York City districts where current Republican Rep. George Santos may run again for reelection as representative for their district.
David Singletary’s 14th District
The 14th District consists of Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, featuring suburban ranch homes and American flags in an environment dominated by Republicans who hold power there. Last year, following the Supreme Court ruling against Democrats’ gerrymandering, one seat was successfully gained back for Republicans here – one example where this occurred!
Republican hopes are high that a red wave will reach Long Island and upstate New York where they have their focus districts favored for gains. Statewide, they hope to elect conservative candidates that are less extremist than MAGA-minded candidates; residents here would likely care more about issues like crime and immigration rather than partisan battles that dominate other House races; this requires investing time, money, and resources into these races in 2024 by both candidates as well as by the GOP itself.
John Morelle’s 18th District
Republican victory marks another district to target in their quest to take back control of the House from Democrats. Rep. George Santos had held onto this seat for an extended period until being defeated during his bid for reelection amid allegations of scandal during his term and facing criminal prosecution for various offenses during that time period.
This district will serve as an acid test for the Republican establishment, with several prominent members seeking to replace Santos and demonstrate the party’s increasing strength on Long Island as moderate suburban voters shift rightward.
Democrats plan to target freshmen Republicans in these districts with issues like crime and migration – issues which were key issues during the 2022 midterms – which will hopefully allow them to gain back seats come 2024 elections. Flipping six districts could make their advantage in the House sixteen seats larger; for this to occur however, current maps must be revised; last year a federal court hired a special master who attempted to do just this but the decision was later challenged in court.
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