Budget Concerns: IRS Chief Fears Funding Shortfalls Will Increase Deficits

Paresh Jadhav

9 months ago

Each year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) publishes an analysis of what federal finances would look like if current laws remained generally unchanged; this report is one such analysis.

CBO projects that total deficits will grow more quickly relative to GDP due to rising interest costs and spending increases on Medicare; primary deficits excluding net outlays for interest are projected to expand less rapidly.

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Taxes

Since 2010, real appropriations to the IRS has decreased by about 20 percent, leading to staff reduction and diminished capacity for return examination, discrepancy follow ups between returns and third party data, and enforcement activities.

Budget deficits reached 5.3 percent of GDP this year and are projected to remain steady over the coming decade. Individual income tax collections have fallen relative to GDP since 2010; their historical share will fall below that by 2023 as CBO anticipates recent strength in collections to fade and real bracket creep to reduce rates, leading fewer taxpayers paying their proper rates of taxation.

Social Security

OASDI’s actuarial deficit increased slightly since last year’s report due to improved methods for specifying age distribution of new lawful immigrants, and an update to post-entitlement benefit adjustment factors. These improvements should cause beneficiary costs to gradually increase over the next several years before decreasing again thereafter.

CBO projections demonstrate that other mandatory spending, as a share of GDP, continues to decline since 2022 and fell below 10.5 percent of GDP for the first time ever this year. Individual income tax receipts also reached this record level of 10.5 percent since 1913 when the 16th Amendment authorized collection of individual income taxes was ratified.

OASDI asset reserves are projected to run out one year earlier than projected last year, meaning a large percentage of scheduled benefits might no longer be payable.

Medicare

Deficits may seem abstract and distant, yet their real-world consequences can affect millions of Americans in real ways. Some worry that deficits will lead to cuts in programs they rely on such as Medicare or Social Security that are essential.

2023 federal tax revenues are projected to fall below their long-run averages due to temporary effects from the coronavirus pandemic on individual income taxes, while federal spending is forecasted to surpass its historical norms.

Most of this increase can be attributed to Medicare Advantage enrollment and rising per-beneficiar costs, both of which the Budget addresses by permitting Medicare to negotiate drug prices, expanding Inflation Reduction Act requirements that drug manufacturers rebate excess price increases back to Medicare, and crediting savings from additional prescription drug reforms to an HI trust fund.

Defense

The fiscal 2023 Appropriations Law makes only minor modifications to nondefense spending, apart from revoking unspent coronavirus relief funds and codifying an end to student loan pause. But it also places several new restrictions on Pentagon appropriations funds.

Requiring that each project involving Defense Department investment be subject to competition is just one such provision; legal authority stipulates that projects funded via competitive processes require prior congressional approval before going forward with any funding rounds. As a result, this makes it very difficult for the Pentagon to rely on its general transfer authority, which allows it to transfer funds between accounts quickly in response to unexpected military requirements.

Congress budget writers also provided increased funding to the Defense Innovation Unit, an $112 million program which assists in developing cutting-edge technologies to upgrade weapons systems and defend against cyber attacks. Congress doubled funding for this year.

Energy

Fossil fuel companies receive generous taxpayer subsidies to extract, process, and utilize fossil fuels – leading to massive pollution which leads to 8.7 million early deaths annually and climate change which threatens economic growth by destroying homes and businesses as well as intensifying natural disasters such as wildfires, drought, and flooding. This global free pass harms Americans on an individual level as well as global levels. This global free pass leads to local pollution which contributes directly to 8.7 million early deaths per year and climate change which threatens economic development while intensifies natural disasters such as wildfires, droughts, and floods – harm which affects Americans more directly.

The President’s Budget puts an end to special treatment for oil and gas companies, leveling the playing field for clean energy initiatives. Furthermore, it invests in programs designed to revive American manufacturing, create jobs, and decrease electricity costs for low-income families.

CBO projects that deficits will gradually decline over the coming years and stabilize at roughly five percent of GDP; without President Obama’s policies in place, they would rise closer to six percent of the economy.