EU leaders are considering ways to sabotage Hungary’s economy and cause a run on its currency and increase in borrowing costs if Hungary continues its opposition against a EUR50 billion aid plan for Ukraine, according to a confidential proposal. It represents a significant escalation in their battle with one of their most pro-Russian member states.
The European Commission has recommended that billions of EU funds remain frozen due to Budapest’s slipperiness on democratic and rule-of-law standards, casting doubt over any attempt by Budapest to appease Brussels by agreeing to new reforms before an upcoming summit to open talks about Ukraine joining the bloc and release remaining aid funding of EUR50 billion aid package.
MEPs have called upon the Council not to yield to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s blackmail tactics by blocking Ukraine aid package as “an offense against European values and strategic interests”. Additionally, they propose activation of Article 7 procedure in order to determine whether Hungary is violating treaty obligations.
Orban has issued a warning to EU leaders, in the form of a letter addressed to European Council President Charles Michel, that any decision regarding EU funding for Ukraine and any further sanctions against Russia cannot be made until such a full review takes place in Brussels when leaders convene in December.
Hungary appears unwavering; Prime Minister Viktor Orban has made clear he will veto any Ukraine aid plan at the summit, due to European leaders’ unwillingness to toughen sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine. Brussels fears failing to take firmer measures may cost it support from America for sanctions on Russia.
The US has pressured the EU to do more, including issuing visa bans against Ukrainian officials who met with Putin; but these efforts have met resistance as European governments, particularly Orban’s Hungary, have expressed reservations over imposing additional sanctions out of fears they will harm ordinary people and compromise the economy.
Orban’s position is driven by his regime’s pro-Russia stance, his desire for EU funds without democratic and rule-of-law conditionality, and domestic political considerations. He knows that an independent Ukraine poses an existential threat to his regime and reduces Russia’s influence in the region if successful, democratic reform occurs there; that’s why it’s critical for Europe not to allow extortion and blackmail as his only foreign policy tool if this goal isn’t upheld; otherwise Orban will continue using blackmail as his only foreign policy tool – as long as this doesn’t happen, extortion as his only foreign policy tool!
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