Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah has not followed through on his bellicose threats to take part in fighting Israel, even as its leader issued repeated warnings of such involvement being disastrous for Lebanon and he likely believes that cooler heads in the Biden administration will keep America away from becoming embroiled in regional crises.
Israel’s response
Israel’s military campaign to crush Hezbollah appears to be making headway despite an unprecedented humanitarian crisis that has claimed thousands of civilian lives. Fighters for Hezbollah are being cornered into a narrow strip of land where Israel Defense Forces bombing are targeting their positions from above and striking suspected Iran-linked targets on the ground.
An increasing number of Americans are raising concerns that Israel has gone too far with its response, according to a new PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll which revealed that 38% of American adults now believe Israel military actions have gone beyond reasonable limits, up from just 26% last month.
Hezbollah leaders, including Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, wish to avoid all-out war; however, their ability to deter attacks from the United States with counterattacks is diminishing as more firepower is deployed into the Middle East to send a signal that Hezbollah and Iran must pay. But this approach is flawed for two reasons.
The Lebanese public’s aversion
Hezbollah’s current stand against Israel has earned it the respect of many Lebanese, even those who do not share its ideology. The group has rallied support for Palestinians in Gaza while standing up to Western-backed Israeli policies throughout Lebanon, earning allies within Sunni Islamist al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya who normally oppose Hezbollah as well.
Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah appears reluctant to escalate the conflict further due to its potential damage on Lebanon. Despite his warnings of war with Israel, Hezbollah may risk its very existence by fighting on this scale with them.
Hezbollah’s primary worry in Gaza is a defeat will damage its credibility as a legitimate resistance movement, according to Salem. They likely won’t stay on the sidelines long, however – should Israel appear close to either crushing Hamas or expelling them, this becomes increasingly likely for Hezbollah.
The tit-for-tat pattern
Since October 7th, Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in an exchange of fire that has not resulted in full-scale war as some had anticipated. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah seems unwilling to escalate fighting further given domestic and regional repercussions of doing so, while Israeli military leaders have spoken about degrading Hezbollah capabilities yet have taken measured responses in retaliation thus far.
Hezbollah may be shifting, however. After witnessing Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in Gaza and having to prioritize family needs amid images of Palestinian bodies, its fighters may begin evaluating whether their commitments to Palestinian liberation outweigh broader material interests. Furthermore, Iran – previously powerless to rein in Hezbollah – now finds itself having to defend Lebanon against Israeli attacks, increasing Hezbollah’s chances of challenging mutual deterrence rules through defense obligations against Israeli attacks from Israel itself – making Hezbollah more likely.
The long-term solution
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has made it abundantly clear since Saleh al-Arouri’s murder that his group does not wish to escalate its conflict with Israel into full regional warfare. This statement stems from Hezbollah’s belief that its survival and popularity depend upon remaining understated as Lebanon struggles economically and endures political impasse.
Hezbollah is well aware that any escalated situation will force Iran into direct confrontation with the United States – something their leadership does not wish for, having lost much of their legitimacy after a devastating terrorist attack.
Nicholas Blanford, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of Warriors of God, suggests that Hezbollah would likely welcome any agreement that limits its military operations to Ghajar and Shebaa Farms border territory for an Israeli withdrawal from other parts of southern Lebanon.
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