In 2016, many political insiders predicted Donald Trump could never win an election, believing he was too inexperienced, divisive and hostile towards broad groups of voters and institutions pillaring our democracy to claim success.
But four years after voters set an all-time record in voter turnout and several other records, turnout appears poised to soar again, raising concern among Democrats.
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Four young people occupying four distinct households in a leafy subdivision in a swing state are knocking doors and passing out campaign literature to bring Donald Trump voters out to vote on November 8. A surge in turnout could prove crucial to his campaign’s chances.
Initial polls reveal an unexpected development: Initial polls show Democratic candidate Joe Biden leading Trump among likely voters, not registered ones. Experts note this could help Trump by driving turnout higher; people tend to vote more when stakes appear to be high or when seeing clear differences among candidates.
I’m going to vote.
President Trump and his allies are counting on conservative voter enthusiasm for Trump to help offset any depressed turnout in blue-collar states, while also believing they can overcome Democratic advantages in urban areas, where they see opportunity to bring in voters who haven’t cast ballots since 2016.
That enthusiasm may be both natural and manufactured: in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump campaign has increased turnout by sending high-profile surrogates out and running a social media blitz encouraging people to vote.
But Maine’s secretary of state’s decision to remove Donald Trump from the ballot — following similar rulings in Colorado and Michigan — has created further political chaos and confusion for 2024 elections. These rulings are currently under appeal to the Supreme Court; Trump, for his part, continues to denounce them as undemocratic attempts at disenfranchisement by authorities.
I’m going to vote for you
One resident in a leafy suburban subdivision told me he will vote for President Donald Trump because, in his mind, everything he has done has been positive. High worker turnout could help the president maintain an edge against Democrats in Rust Belt states like Ohio.
Voter enthusiasm has skyrocketed amid a coronavirus pandemic and an expanding economy. But Trump’s rhetoric has inflamed it further; he has called for pardoning those charged in the Capitol raid trial, claimed the election is being stolen, and recruited white nationalist allies to send mobs of poll watchers into Democratic cities as poll watchers.
As opposed to past midterm elections, when voter apathy played an outsized role, both parties are now more ideological than ever – which benefits both, but especially Trump if he can expand his Republican base – which appears possible given how he’s approaching things.
I’m going to vote for you for Donald trump
Trump has convinced his supporters that he has what it takes to win both the GOP nomination and presidency, including pro-Trump groups like Faith & Freedom Coalition and Proud Boys, as well as Republican governors including Jim Justice in West Virginia, Henry McMaster in South Carolina and Tate Reeves from Mississippi who support Trump as president. Additionally, several conservative commentators such as Ann Coulter and Vice Media’s Ralph Reed have taken up his cause and pledged their support as well.
What makes Trump truly remarkable, however, is how he has mobilised many voters who might otherwise remain dormant. Voters who once dismissed parties as “Tweedledum and Tweedledee” as pointless have now seen that voting can have real ramifications and are more likely to show up at polling places this election cycle.