Though public perception of traditional hard security risks remains elevated relative to last year, according to a new study they have decreased since Russia invaded Ukraine.
China poses a greater danger to the United States than Russia.
Beijing may also fear creating the impression that Western democracies have “defeated” Russia, which could harm its own standing.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine has claimed many lives and dislocated millions. His illegal annexation of Crimea discredited Russia as a global power, while his recognition of self-styled republics in eastern Ukraine thwarted peace deals brokered by Germany and France.
Ukrainens have found new strength and purpose within their Western allies as a result of the violence in their nation. NATO, once seen by many observers as irrelevant and irrelevant for Ukraine and Poland respectively, has gained back its significance and relevance once more in these nations that previously felt it had overstepped its boundaries.
Only the United States and Poland rank Russia as one of their primary perceived major risks, while in the US this perception has become even more divided along partisan lines: only 13% of Democrats and 31% of Republicans trust President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy handling while most Americans now place less trust in Putin than they did when first elected president in 2015.
China’s deepening ties with Taiwan
The United States has long feared a Chinese “moonshot” to dominate global economies through economic and technological means, sparking strategy documents and speeches detailing China’s expansionist military, predatory economic policies and covert overseas influence operations. This anxiety has inspired an entire cottage industry of strategy documents and speeches dedicated to this topic.
As Americans have become more fearful, those fears have been eclipsed by other more pressing worries. Most still see the United States as the main threat; however, almost two-thirds consider China to be an especially significant source of danger.
That figure has increased 5 percentage points since 2020 and 23 since 2013. This increase corresponds with public disapproval of Beijing’s policies towards Taiwan, particularly as President Xi reaffirmed Beijing’s principle that there is only one China and that Republic of China (Taiwan) should eventually unite under mainland rule. Earlier in 2021 Australia issued a statement labelling Taiwan a leading democracy that has played an instrumental role in countering disinformation and hybrid attacks.
China’s military build-up in the South China Sea
China has steadily been expanding its military presence in the South China Sea through naval and air forces to enforce their territorial claims. They have deployed advanced weapons such as J-20 stealth fighters and hypersonic missiles; as well as two aircraft carriers – with another on order.
At the same time, they have constructed several artificial islands into military bases equipped with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, laser and jamming equipment, and fighter jets – threatening free movement of ships and trade along vital waterways.
Beijing claims it is exercising its sovereign over disputed waters, while Washington views this move as an attempt to change international order in its favor. In response, Pentagon has introduced its Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy and strengthened alliances across Asia (such as with Japan and South Korea). They have also sought to increase forces presence on Guam, Australia and elsewhere in the region.
China’s cyber-attacks on US infrastructure
Jen Easterly, director of the federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, addressed a House select committee Wednesday and warned about a threat that affects “every American.” She reported that hackers tied to China’s People’s Liberation Army were targeting water treatment plants as well as oil and gas pipelines.
The FBI has successfully interrupted Volt Typhoon’s hacking operation by obtaining search-and-seizure orders in Houston federal court, according to court documents released Wednesday. Court documents also indicate that hackers used older office routers in order to gain entry to networks controlling critical national assets like off-base electricity sources, commercial satellites and undersea cables.
China and Russia may perceive the United States’ strategy in Ukraine and Syria as being potentially hostile, yet their strategic interests still align significantly. Both seek to limit America’s role as global policeman while preventing US-inspired color revolutions from breaking out in Russia’s backyard.
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