Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is looking to China for help as a mediator to end a civil war that has already claimed more than 10,000 lives. Beijing has put forward an idea for ending it through peace talks.
Experts agree that China’s overtures to maintain conflict will likely fail as Beijing stands to gain most from prolonging it.
Kyiv’s plans mean nothing
Kuleba understands that any peace plan must adhere to two core principles. First, any agreement must not involve Kyiv making territorial concessions and secondly it must provide security guarantees for Ukraine.
He noted that a simple ceasefire would not end Russia?s aggressive behavior. According to him, peace isn?t something the Kremlin is seeking – rather it seeks dominance through aggression.
This week, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko plans to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos to seek international support for his peace formula, including Russian troop withdrawal and protecting food and energy supplies, nuclear safety and prisoners of war. He will present this 10 point list during discussions at Davos.
A spokesman for the presidency refused to reveal whether Zelenskyy and Chinese Premier Li will meet during his stay in Switzerland, with only “let?s see” as his response; earlier he had indicated they might participate in a panel discussion at WEF.
Moscows plans
China has taken a careful stance toward Russia’s conflict, refraining from direct condemnation while emphasizing its pledge not to supply arms for either side. But at the same time, Chinese Communist Party is making moves to play an ever-larger role in managing global affairs as part of efforts to return China to what it sees as its rightful position as global power.
Xi and Putin enjoy what has been described as a “no limits friendship,” with Beijing using its membership on the U.N. Security Council to block efforts at censure of Moscow. Additionally, Beijing has strengthened economic, diplomatic and security ties between themselves as well as that of Russia – including providing components to supply their navy as well as considering possible deliveries of armed drones.
Beijing understands that Ukraine’s conflict will likely linger for some time; therefore, their proposal has less to do with ending it and more with upholding China’s international standing as an impartial peacemaker.
12-point peace
China recently made a 12-point peace overture to Ukraine that consisted mostly of familiar Chinese talking points regarding its civil war. These included respecting UN Charter principles and territorial integrity as well as creating a balanced regional security architecture with no unilateral sanctions being levied against any nation-states.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to China to back his “peace formula” during a meeting of national security advisers in Switzerland prior to the World Economic Forum (WEF). Andriy Yermak, his chief of staff hailed this development as proof that countries from Global South were becoming involved with Ukraine’s peace efforts.
Eurasia Group analysts believe Xi’s call with Zelenskyy will further Western hopes that Beijing can exert its influence to help Kyiv reach an accord with Russia, although Western perceptions remain pro-Russian of China as it expands its footprint into post-Soviet states with tenuous relations to Moscow; China appears determined to establish itself on the international scene and carve out its own place for itself in these nations.
high-level meeting of 83 national security
Davos hosted a high-level meeting of 83 national security and policy advisors last month; however, no significant strides appear to have been taken toward ending Ukraine’s conflict with Russia. Ignazio Cassis, Foreign Minister of Switzerland who co-hosted this discussion said he hoped this gathering would eventually lead to talks involving both sides in a conflict which has claimed thousands of lives and uprooted millions since Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion last year.
Putin may agree to talks with Ukrainian leader, if their government decreed no communication between Russia and Ukraine at any stage, while China, which has sought to position itself as an impartial mediator, may not back calls for Russia to give up the territory it holds in Ukraine.
That leaves only one solution – convincing United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres to hold a peace summit alongside regular world body meetings – although that might prove challenging due to Russia being specifically excluded, further straining an already troubled security council.
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