According to an NBC News report, Western officials are secretly initiating talks with Russia as the conflict in Ukraine remains at an impasse, signaling an important shift in strategy.
As President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted, any negotiations must include Ukraine reclaiming her territory from Russia – something which requires major concessions on their part.
The West’s expectations are growing
As in Russia, Ukraine has developed its national identity through conflict for centuries, and many Ukrainians now see victory as defined in maximalist terms; 82% of respondents to a survey see peace with Moscow as only possible when all territories seized since 2014 are returned by Kiev.
Kyiv has been reluctant to engage in discussions that might give legitimacy or concessions to Putin’s war aims or concessions to Russia, according to NBC reports. Furthermore, President Poroshenko himself has rejected calls for multilateral talks excluding Russia.
However, if the West can agree on an overarching framework for negotiations that includes talks about Crimea’s long-term future and DPR/LPR as well as some hope for sanctions moderation, Kyiv may be willing to engage in dialogue again. Furthermore, US and European leaders have indicated their openness to such proposals which might bring forward some progress towards reinvigorating peace negotiations.
Putin is confident of outlasting the democratic world
Putin is evidently proud that Western governments have responded so poorly and halfheartedly to his war of aggression; he feels confident that their spending spree has transformed his once-maligned army into one of the world’s strongest military units.
Russia is confident that his tactics will eventually force Western leaders to press Ukraine into accepting a peace settlement on Russia’s terms, banking on war fatigue in both America and Europe to weaken allied resolve or detract attention from his ongoing aggression.
Kyiv’s leaders remain firm in their determination not to negotiate with Russia until they have established a secure strategic footing – which requires not only robust military forces but also vibrant democracy. Any compromise would be betraying Ukraine and her people, who have proven their resolve, discipline, and tenacity by fighting off Russian invasion of their nation.
The West’s strategy of standing indefinitely on the defensive
The West has invested much in Ukraine. They have sanctioned Russia, provided steady military aid, and trained up Ukrainian forces.
Yet US and European allies have failed to devise an effective plan for achieving real victory in Ukraine. Western politicians’ claims that Kyiv can overthrow Moscow with additional weapons and aid only compounds the difficulties associated with holding off Russia’s attacks against its economy and society.
Even a compromised real peace would be preferable to its alternative: Russia seizing control over much of Ukraine and installing a government acceptable to them in Kyiv, stripping away ports, mineral resources, energy sources, arable land and ports vital to Ukrainian industry and society while giving Moscow more room to surround NATO member states, potentially risking direct confrontation or nuclear escalation.
Putin is preparing for a long war
Some Western officials privately acknowledge that Ukraine may only have until late 2016 or shortly thereafter before more urgent discussions about peace negotiations should commence. That is a frightening thought.
Western support will wane as Ukraine’s civil war drags on, with Kyiv running low on ammunition as winter nears and its army needing manpower replenishment to stay current – and President Poroshenko being unable to attract recruits for new troops.
Meanwhile, Putin is making the gamble that Russia can hold off Western aggression through a war of attrition. His strategy includes investing Russia’s economy in military spending and war-related production which he believes will draw the West deeper into conflict with Ukraine. While risky, this approach likely outlives his presidential term unless changes in course can be implemented quickly enough – otherwise they risk fighting an endless battle without much hope of victory.
- Friday Intraday Trading Sees Nvidia’s stock Market Cap Momentarily Cross $2 Trillion
- Trump’s January 6 Civil Cases Proceed While Criminal Case Is Halted
- Trump Delivers Speech at the Columbia Black Conservative Federation Gala
- Trump Declares Strong Support for IVF Following Alabama Supreme Court Decision
- Schumer in Ukraine Declares US Backing During House Aid Standoff
